The Shrinkage of Lake Lop Nur in the Twentieth Century: A Comprehensive Ecohydrological Analysis

Abstract A comprehensive ecohydrological analysis is designed to understand the formation and evolution of lake Lop Nur environmental change over Tarim River basin. Three temporal scales from century-based climatological mean decade-based quasi-steady state annual-scale-based abrupt test are included. Combining Budyko Tomer–Schilling framework, this research first analyzes hydroclimatic resistance/resilience conditions, then attributes observed changes external/climate impact or internal/anthropogenic activities, finally diagnoses possible tipping point on dynamics. (i) The arid regions reveal less sensitivity in terms low variabilities excess water W energy U show high resilience, which will more likely stay same pattern future. (ii) Present towns situated semiarid with a natural hydraulic linkage mainstream higher likelihood be affected if drier scenarios occurred (iii) attribution two subsequent states indicates increasing effects anthropogenic activities increase (1961–80 versus 1981–2000) provides climatical evidence that central basin was getting wetter before 1960 kept drying afterward. (iv) In Kongqi subcatchment, reveals significant decrease-then-increase evolution, years 1960s. Generally, both points iii iv agreement closed-basin desiccation until 1970s its connection eastern part Taklamakan Sand Sea.